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Prediction model for high slope stability based on orthogonal test, M-P method, and multiple regression

  • English Author:
  • Fang Jian¹, Fang Qinghong², Li Jing³

  • Unit:
  • (1. Guangdong Hongtong Green Mining Co., Ltd.; 2. Changsha Institute of Mining Research Co., Ltd.; 3. School of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Wuhan University of Science and Technology)
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Abstract:

To quickly and accurately calculate slope stability factors in open-pit mines and predict slope safety, the M-P method was utilized to calculate the stability factors of orthogonal test design. A multiple linear regression approach was employed to develop a predictive model for high slope stability, proposing a simplified prediction model and validating its accuracy. The study revealed the principle behind simplified stability calculations, explored the quan-titative relationships between influencing factors and stability factors, and assessed the influence of specific factors on slope stability. The prediction model was further refined and validated using the strength reduction method. Results showed that the average relative error of the refined prediction model was 2.48 %, indicating high prediction accuracy and model fit. Among 7 influencing factors, the impact degree on slope stability was o > C > a > p > H >E > u, where elas-tic modulus and Poisson's ratio had negligible effects. The validation using the strength reduction method confirmed the scientific robustness of the refined prediction model. This model provides reference for slope safety early warning and control measures.

Keywords:

high slope stability; orthogonal test; M-P method; multiple linear regression; strength reduction method; prediction model