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Study on the correlation of gold price under economic cycle

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  • Zhaoyuan Rural Economic Running and Management Service Center
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Abstract:

The study on the correlation between gold price and economic cycle and each economic index is crucial to make judgment on gold price trend.The study finds out that the gold price trend has a certain negative correlation with the economic cycle,that is,when the economy is in the recovery and prosperity stage,the gold price trend shows a weak trend;when the economy is in the stagflation and recession stage,the gold price trend shows a strong trend.US dollar index,US bond return rate,actual return rate are generally in negative correlation with gold price,while oil price,inflation index are in positive correlation with gold price.The results can provide reference for the judgment of gold price trend.

Keywords:

gold price;economic cycle;correlation coefficient;US dollar index;actual return rate