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基于机器学习的矿山岩体失稳模型构建及风险评估

Machine learning-based model construction and risk assessment of mine rock mass instability

  • 摘要: 地下矿山开采过程中普遍存在地压灾害频发、爆破施工扰动,导致岩体失稳及顶板沉降变形等多种复杂岩体失稳风险灾害。为精准提升矿山安全生产管理水平,以金川二矿区为研究对象,系统梳理该矿区岩体工程地质相关数据,从数据库中筛选并获取了6 912个具有代表性的数据样本作为研究基础。采用GBDT、XGBoost、LightGBM和CatBoost等4种主流机器学习算法,构建岩体失稳风险分类与评价模型,对金川二矿区的岩体失稳风险状况进行全面、系统的分析评价。为客观、科学地验证模型性能,选取精确率、召回率、F1得分及准确率4个核心评价指标,对模型的预测效果进行量化评估。研究结果表明,所构建的4种机器学习模型在岩体失稳风险评价中均表现出较好的适用性和可靠性,能够有效实现对岩体失稳风险的精准识别与分级。其中,基于LightGBM算法搭建的模型在各项评价指标上均表现最优,具备最佳的综合评价性能。该研究成果可为金川二矿区及同类地下矿山的岩体失稳风险等级精准分析、风险预警及安全生产管理决策提供科学可靠的参考依据,对保障矿山开采作业安全具有重要实践意义。

     

    Abstract: There are various complex rock mass instability risk disasters commonly faced in underground mining processes, such as frequent ground pressure disasters, rock mass instability caused by blasting construction disturbances, and roof subsidence deformation. To precisely enhance the level of mine safety production management, this paper took the Jinchuan Second Mining Area as the specific research object and systematically sorted out the relevant engineering geological data of the rock mass in this mining area. From the database, 6 912 representative data samples were selected and obtained as the research foundation. The study employed four mainstream machine learning algorithms: GBDT, XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost, to construct a rock mass instability risk classification and evaluation model. This model conducted a comprehensive and systematic analysis and evaluation of the rock mass instability risk situation in the Jinchuan Second Mining Area. To objectively and scientifically verify the performance of the model, four core evaluation indicators, namely precision, recall, F1 score, and accuracy, were selected to quantitatively assess the prediction performance of the aforementioned four models. The research results indicate that the constructed four machine learning models exhibit good applicability and reliability in rock mass instability risk evaluation, effectively achieving precise identification and classification of rock mass instability risks. Among them, the model based on the LightGBM algorithm performs optimally in all evaluation indicators, demonstrating the best comprehensive evaluation performance. This research outcome provides a scientific and reliable reference for precise analysis, risk warning, and safety production management decision-making of rock mass instability risk levels in the Jinchuan Second Mining Area and similar underground mines. It holds significant practical importance for ensuring the safety of mining operations.

     

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